Scottsdale Home Prices Are Shifting — Here’s What Sellers Need to Know

in 2025: A Local’s Take on Migration, Jobs, Schools, and Urban Revitalization

By J. Todd Simpson, Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty

Hey there, fellow Scottsdale enthusiasts—it’s J. Todd Simpson here, your go-to real estate guide with Russ Lyon Sotheby’s. I’ve called this sun-soaked paradise home for over two decades, navigating everything from quiet North Scottsdale ranches to sleek Old Town condos. As we hit early November 2025, I’ve been fielding calls from buyers asking the big question: Is now the time to dive into Scottsdale real estate? 

Spoiler: Absolutely, but let’s break it down with the fresh data I’ve been poring over. From booming migration patterns to job magnets, top-tier education options, and those game-changing mall makeovers, here’s why prices are holding strong—and why this could be your moment to join the Scottsdale story.

Kierland The Hot-Spot for 2025

Current Snapshot: Prices Holding Steady Amid Smart Growth

Let’s start with the numbers that keep agents like me up at night (in the best way). As of October 2025, the median sale price for a home in Scottsdale clocked in at $1,085,000, with properties lingering on the market for about 134 days on average. That’s a notch up from earlier in the year, when June’s median hovered around $920,000—a modest 2.22% bump year-over-year. Zillow pegs the typical home value at $835,288, down just 1.1% from last year, signaling a cooling from the post-pandemic frenzy but nothing that screams “bust.” Redfin echoes this with a median of $849,000 last month, a 4.6% dip, yet per-square-foot prices are climbing to $426—proof that buyers are prioritizing quality over quantity.

In my listings, we’re seeing inventory swell to about 8.18 months of supply, giving savvy buyers some negotiating room, especially on “as-is” properties that can shave costs without skimping on potential. Downtown Scottsdale? Even hotter at $710,000 median in July, up 6.4%. Overall, Greater Phoenix prices have eased 6.9% from their 2022 peak, but affordability remains a stretch at 53.6% above historical norms—yet that’s drawing in investors who see long-term upside. As someone who’s closed deals from $500K starters to $5M estates, I can tell you: Scottsdale’s market is resilient, not reckless.

Zip Code Spotlight: Price Per Square Foot and Key Trends

Drilling down gets even more exciting—especially for those eyeing specific neighborhoods. I’ve crunched the latest from Redfin, Zillow, and local MLS data as of mid-November 2025 to spotlight four powerhouse zip codes that define North Scottsdale’s allure. These areas aren’t just holding value; they’re appreciating thanks to low inventory, high demand from remote workers, and proximity to hiking trails, golf courses, and that unbeatable mountain backdrop. Here’s the breakdown on median price per square foot (PPSF), medians, and trends—perfect for tailoring your search.

• 85254 (North Scottsdale gems like Kierland): PPSF sits at $451-$555 depending on the size of your lot, with a median sale price of $905,000 (up 3.8% YoY). Trends? Inventory’s tight at 2.5 months, sales volume steady at 45 homes/month, and we’re seeing a 4.2% PPSF climb from Q1. Families love the walkability; strong schools, PV Mall and investors eye the rental yields of 5%.

Own a large lot home in 85254, there are 17 scrape and new-build projects in our area and developers are paying top-dollar. (Call me if you have one of these homes)

• 85255 (DC Ranch and Windgate vibes): Here, PPSF is $534-, fueling median prices to $1,250,000 (a solid 5.1% YoY gain). Market’s buzzing with 3.2 months’ supply, 52 sales/month, and a 5.5% PPSF uptick year-to-date. Luxury builds and resort-style communities are driving this—think quick closes under 60 days for under-$2M listings. However, sales are starting to stagnate. This could be cyclical due to the holidays, but we will know more in January.

• 85262 (Carefree Highway luxury, including Silverleaf): PPSF leads at $605, with medians at $1,650,000 (up 2.9% YoY). Trends show 4.1 months’ inventory, 28 sales/month, and a steady 3.7% PPSF rise. Equestrian estates and gated enclaves are hot; expect 7-10% appreciation by 2026 as wildfire migration and desire for large lots and horse facilities boosts buyer confidence.

• 85331 (Cave Creek edge, blending rural charm with Scottsdale access): PPSF is more approachable at $374, with medians at $725,000 (4.5% YoY increase). With 3.8 months’ supply and 35 sales/month, PPSF has edged up 4.8% this year. Horse properties and value plays are trending—ideal for first-time luxury buyers stretching into Scottsdale’s orbit.

  
  

Across these zips, the big trend? Balanced growth: Overall Scottsdale PPSF is up 4.3% YoY to $466, but with mortgage rates dipping to 6.2%, we’re forecasting 3-5% median price gains through 2026. Off-market deals in 85255 and 85262 are my secret weapon for clients dodging bidding wars.

The Migration Magnet: Why Everyone’s Flocking Here

One of the biggest drivers? People are moving here—and staying. Scottsdale’s net migration for retirees alone hit a positive 904 in 2023, with 2,519 seniors arriving versus just 1,615 leaving. Fast-forward to 2025, and the Phoenix-Scottsdale metro ranks among the top U.S. spots for inbound moves, pulling in 69,545 net residents last year alone. Arizona as a whole welcomed 256,203 newcomers in 2023 (a slight dip from 2022’s peak, but still robust), fueled by Californians (389,137 since the trend kicked off) and Texans chasing our endless blue skies and lower taxes.

Projections? We’re eyeing 2.6 million new Arizonans by 2055, a steady 1% annual clip, with 86.3% tied to net migration. In my world at Russ Lyon, this translates to more out-of-staters touring via FaceTime, then jetting in for in-person showings. It’s not just retirees; young professionals and families are betting on Scottsdale’s vibe, pushing demand and stabilizing prices even as national rates wobble.

Scottsdale Waterfront and Old Town Charm

Jobs Galore: Scottsdale’s Crown as America’s Top Employment Hub

If migration’s the pull, jobs are the anchor. Drumroll: Scottsdale snagged the #1 spot for best city for jobs in 2025, per WalletHub, thanks to a rock-bottom unemployment rate of 2.97% and median worker earnings of $57,183. Forbes agrees, highlighting our sky-high median household incomes and employment growth that outpaces the nation. We’re talking sectors like tech, finance, and hospitality exploding—think HonorHealth expansions and new headquarters drawing talent from coast to coast.

From my vantage, this means clients aren’t just buying homes; they’re investing in careers. Housing costs eat up 32.9% of income here (far friendlier than coastal metros), making it a no-brainer for remote workers hybridizing with local gigs. As Phoenix metro’s job engine, Scottsdale’s fueling a virtuous cycle: More paychecks, more bids on that dream McDowell Mountain view.

Education Edge: Schools and Choice That Families Crave

Scottsdale’s not just pretty; it’s smart. Our Scottsdale Unified School District (SUSD) ranks among Arizona’s elite, with open enrollment kicking off November 3 for the 2026-27 year—letting kids chase the best fit regardless of zip code. We’ve got four stellar “Schools of Choice”: Cheyenne Traditional, Echo Canyon K-8, Pueblo Elementary, and Scottsdale Online Learning, all boundary-free and buzzing with innovation.

But Arizona’s school choice revolution takes it further. The Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) covers private tuition, curricula, tutoring—you name it—for thousands of families. Add tax-credit scholarships via School Choice Arizona, and you’ve got five private programs total, from ESAs to STOs, empowering parents like never before. Spots like Alpha School Scottsdale top 2025 high school lists with mastery-based models and tiny class ratios, while SUSD’s traditional powerhouses keep us in the top tier for Phoenix families.

Redevelopment Renaissance: Malls and Mixed-Use Magic Boosting Values

Finally, the urban alchemy: Redevelopment’s turning Scottsdale’s commercial core into a price propeller. Take Scottsdale Fashion Square—our crown-jewel mall. Macerich just greenlit a Palm Court overhaul starting early 2026, blending luxury retail with experiential spaces that’ll draw crowds and cash. Broader Phoenix commercial? Vacancy’s low, leasing’s hot, and sectors like industrial and office are rebounding with tech infusions and infrastructure bucks.

Retail’s the star: 2025 forecasts low vacancies and “emerging mixed-use” vibes, where old big-box spots morph into live-work-play hubs—think apartments atop shops, spiking residential demand. This isn’t fluff; it’s fueling Scottsdale’s 2025 glow-up, with new developments stabilizing prices at $850K medians and beyond. I’ve seen it firsthand: A client’s Old Town loft jumped 15% post a nearby plaza refresh. These projects aren’t just prettying up; they’re pricing up the neighborhood. Think how PV Reimagined, or Kierland and The Quarter - you can see first hand how these type of projects drive growth and demand when a community feel is created.

Wrapping It Up: Your Scottsdale Chapter Starts Now

Folks, as J. Todd Simpson with Russ Lyon Sotheby’s, I’ve witnessed Scottsdale evolve from desert gem to global draw—and late 2025’s the sweet spot. With migration inflows, job supremacy, choice-rich schools, redevelopment wizardry, and those zip-specific trends showing steady PPSF climbs, our market’s primed for thoughtful growth, and most likely, a straitening of the past wild swings.

Ready to stake your claim? Drop me a line at JToddBroker@Gmail.com or 480-465-1504

Here’s to your Scottsdale sunrise—what’s your first question?

J. Todd Simpson is a 25-year Scottsdale native and luxury real estate specialist with Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty, specializing in 85254 sellers and buyers alike.